Updated April 2026 · FBI UCR 2023
Crime Trend Reports
Across 248 U.S. cities tracked here, 124 are on a clearly improving 5-year trend, 55 are worsening, and 69 are roughly stable. These reports surface the biggest movers — cities with the largest per-capita crime declines and the steepest rises — built from FBI Uniform Crime Reporting data with national context.
What's Driving U.S. Crime Trends
The dominant national pattern over the past five years is bumpy. Violent crime rose during 2020-2021 in many large cities and has mostly retreated since, with the FBI's 2023 estimates showing rates back near pre-pandemic levels. Property crime is more mixed — burglary continued a multi-decade decline, while motor vehicle theft rose sharply in many metros, driven partly by social-media-amplified vulnerabilities in specific vehicle models.
Inside that national picture, individual cities can move in very different directions. Some metros that saw 2020 spikes returned faster than the U.S. average; others have lagged. The reports below isolate the cities at the extremes so readers can see where the broader story is concentrated. For deeper aggregates, the FBI Crime Data Explorer publishes the same underlying figures, and the Bureau of Justice Statistics publishes victimization data that captures the share of crime that goes unreported to police.
Top 5 Improving Cities (5-yr trend)
- Pueblo, CO-15.0%
- Modesto, CA-15.0%
- Pasadena, CA-15.0%
- Birmingham, AL-15.0%
- Vallejo, CA-15.0%
Top 5 Rising-Crime Cities (5-yr trend)
- Federal Way, WA+9.0%
- Chesapeake, VA+9.0%
- New York, NY+9.0%
- Garland, TX+9.0%
- Wichita, KS+9.0%
Browse All Trend Reports
Cities That Got Safer
The biggest 5-year safety improvements
Cities That Got More Dangerous
The biggest 5-year increases in crime rates
How These Trends Are Calculated
For each city, CrimeContext fits a simple linear regression to five years of annual total per-capita crime rate (violent + property combined). The slope is converted to a percent change across the window. Cities are bucketed into Improving (≤ −3% over five years), Stable (between −3% and +3%), and Worsening (≥ +3%). The 5-year window dampens the year-to-year noise that's common in single-year UCR data, especially during the FBI's ongoing transition from the Summary Reporting System to NIBRS. The trend direction also contributes 30% to the Safety Context Score on every city profile. Read the full methodology.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a crime rate trend?
In CrimeContext, a "trend" is the 5-year direction of a city's total crime rate, expressed as a percentage change. Negative numbers mean per-capita crime fell; positive numbers mean it rose. Across the 248 U.S. cities tracked here, 124 (50%) are clearly improving, 55 are worsening, and 69 are roughly stable. Trend direction contributes 30% to the Safety Context Score.
Are most U.S. cities getting safer or more dangerous?
Across the 248-city cohort tracked here, the modal pattern is gentle improvement. Violent-crime rates rose nationally during 2020-2021 and have since retreated; property crime is more mixed, with motor vehicle theft sharply higher in many metros. The FBI's most recent estimates show overall violent crime back near pre-pandemic levels, with the change dominated by handful of large cities rather than a uniform shift.
Why is motor vehicle theft rising in so many cities?
Motor vehicle theft is the standout outlier in recent FBI data. Two factors dominate the broader pattern: a viral social-media trend exposing keyless-ignition vulnerabilities in specific vehicle models since 2022, and pandemic-era shifts in vehicle storage and street parking density. Cities with above-average rates of those vehicle models report sharper jumps. The Bureau of Justice Statistics tracks the same trend in victimization data.
How are these trend reports compiled?
For each city, we fit a linear regression to five years of total per-capita crime rate (violent + property combined). The slope is converted to a percent change over the 5-year window. Cities are then bucketed: Improving (≤ -3%), Stable (between -3% and +3%), and Worsening (≥ +3%). The reports linked below highlight the cities at the extremes — biggest declines and biggest rises — and group them by region or population bracket.
How often are these reports refreshed?
Reports are recomputed each time CrimeContext ingests a new FBI UCR release, typically once per year for the prior calendar year. The current build covers FBI UCR 2023 data and was last refreshed April 2026. Methodology and source links are documented on every report page.
Source: U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation, Uniform Crime Reporting Program (2023). Accessed via the FBI Crime Data Explorer. Reporting context from the Bureau of Justice Statistics. Public domain.
Last refreshed 2026-04-06 · 248 cities tracked.