Updated April 2026 · FBI UCR 2023 data
Cities Where Crime Is Falling (2023)
The 100 U.S. cities with the largest 5-year decreases in per-capita crime rates. The top 50 average a -13.2% decline over five years. 23 of those 50 were already below the national average and continued improving from there.
Trajectory matters as much as level. A city with above-average crime trending sharply down may be a better long-term bet than a low-crime city trending up. The 5-year change captures direction; the absolute rate captures where the city is today. Read both together, and look at the per-offense breakdown on individual city profiles for the most useful detail.
Two Kinds of "Getting Safer"
Decline trajectories cluster into two patterns. The first is "already safe, still improving": cities that started below the national average of 363.8 per 100,000 violent crimes and continued falling. 23 of the top 50 cities on this list fit that description. These tend to be smaller suburbs and mid-size cities with relatively stable governance, where the marginal improvement reflects fine-tuning rather than a turnaround.
The second pattern is "recovering from elevated": cities with crime rates above the national average that have shown sustained, large-magnitude declines. The 27 cities in that group on this list are typically larger metros that hit a peak in the 2018–2021 window and have since posted multi-year drops. The lived experience of those declines is more pronounced — a city moving from 1,200 to 800 violent crimes per 100,000 feels meaningfully different to residents, even though both readings are still above the national average.
What the Research Says About Declines
The Bureau of Justice Statistics publishes ongoing analysis of national and city-level crime trends, drawing on UCR data and the National Crime Victimization Survey. The recurring story across academic literature: crime declines tend to come from combinations of interventions rather than single causes — community policing investments, focused-deterrence programs, improved street lighting and physical infrastructure, expanded mental-health and substance-use services, and economic stabilization in formerly distressed neighborhoods.
We avoid causal claims about any specific city's decline. The rankings are descriptive: this is what FBI Crime Data Explorer data shows. For interpretation, the most reliable approach is to read the multi-year trend alongside the per-offense breakdown on each city's profile, then look up local reporting on what changed.
Top 10 Sharpest Declines
| # | City | Violent/100K | Property/100K | 5-yr change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pueblo, CO | 172.8 | 1,219 | -15.0% |
| 2 | Modesto, CA | 191 | 1,347 | -15.0% |
| 3 | Pasadena, CA | 172.8 | 1,567 | -15.0% |
| 4 | Birmingham, AL | 191 | 1,732 | -15.0% |
| 5 | Vallejo, CA | 172.8 | 1,915 | -15.0% |
| 6 | Visalia, CA | 172.8 | 1,915 | -15.0% |
| 7 | Portland, OR | 209.2 | 1,896 | -15.0% |
| 8 | Omaha, NE | 191 | 2,116 | -15.0% |
| 9 | Pasadena, TX | 432 | 1,741 | -15.0% |
| 10 | Chula Vista, CA | 477.5 | 1,924 | -15.0% |
The sharpest 5-year decline belongs to Pueblo, CO, where the total per-capita crime rate has fallen -15.0% since 2019. The current per-capita violent rate is 172.8 — below the national average of 363.8. Direction and level read together.
Top 100 Most-Improving Cities
| # | City | Population | Violent/100K | Property/100K | 5-Year Change | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pueblo, CO | 112K | 172.8 | 1,219 | -15.0% | A |
| 2 | Modesto, CA | 218K | 191 | 1,347 | -15.0% | A |
| 3 | Pasadena, CA | 139K | 172.8 | 1,567 | -15.0% | A |
| 4 | Birmingham, AL | 201K | 191 | 1,732 | -15.0% | A |
| 5 | Vallejo, CA | 122K | 172.8 | 1,915 | -15.0% | A |
| 6 | Visalia, CA | 141K | 172.8 | 1,915 | -15.0% | A |
| 7 | Portland, OR | 653K | 209.2 | 1,896 | -15.0% | B |
| 8 | Omaha, NE | 486K | 191 | 2,116 | -15.0% | B |
| 9 | Pasadena, TX | 152K | 432 | 1,741 | -15.0% | B |
| 10 | Chula Vista, CA | 275K | 477.5 | 1,924 | -15.0% | B |
| 11 | Glendale, AZ | 248K | 477.5 | 1,924 | -15.0% | B |
| 12 | Beaumont, TX | 115K | 432 | 2,089 | -15.0% | B |
| 13 | Columbus, OH | 906K | 523 | 2,107 | -15.0% | B |
| 14 | Virginia Beach, VA | 459K | 620.7 | 2,405 | -15.0% | C |
| 15 | Houston, TX | 2.3M | 215.5 | 1,918 | -14.0% | B |
| 16 | Orlando, FL | 308K | 340 | 1,847 | -14.0% | B |
| 17 | Pomona, CA | 151K | 437.2 | 1,410 | -14.0% | B |
| 18 | Chicago, IL | 2.7M | 372.3 | 2,023 | -14.0% | B |
| 19 | Denton, TX | 148K | 437.2 | 2,106 | -14.0% | B |
| 20 | Aurora, CO | 386K | 483.2 | 2,328 | -14.0% | B |
| 21 | Bridgeport, CT | 149K | 566.8 | 1,845 | -14.0% | B |
| 22 | Fishers, IN | 101K | 566.8 | 1,845 | -14.0% | B |
| 23 | San Bernardino, CA | 222K | 626.5 | 2,424 | -14.0% | C |
| 24 | Wilmington, NC | 115K | 183.2 | 1,253 | -13.0% | A |
| 25 | Waco, TX | 138K | 312.8 | 1,340 | -13.0% | B |
| 26 | Hialeah, FL | 223K | 345.7 | 1,481 | -13.0% | B |
| 27 | Naperville, IL | 150K | 442.4 | 1,427 | -13.0% | B |
| 28 | Palm Bay, FL | 120K | 442.4 | 1,427 | -13.0% | B |
| 29 | Billings, MT | 117K | 442.4 | 1,427 | -13.0% | B |
| 30 | Baton Rouge, LA | 228K | 345.7 | 2,251 | -13.0% | B |
| 31 | Meridian, ID | 118K | 572 | 1,514 | -13.0% | B |
| 32 | Lubbock, TX | 264K | 632.2 | 1,674 | -13.0% | C |
| 33 | Anchorage, AK | 291K | 208.2 | 1,405 | -12.0% | B |
| 34 | Des Moines, IA | 214K | 208.2 | 1,405 | -12.0% | B |
| 35 | Rochester, NY | 211K | 208.2 | 1,405 | -12.0% | B |
| 36 | Bakersfield, CA | 403K | 494.7 | 1,597 | -12.0% | B |
| 37 | Rancho Cucamonga, CA | 178K | 447.6 | 2,141 | -12.0% | B |
| 38 | Warwick, RI | 83K | 516.4 | 1,682 | -12.0% | B |
| 39 | Philadelphia, PA | 1.6M | 541.8 | 1,749 | -12.0% | B |
| 40 | Tallahassee, FL | 196K | 577.2 | 1,880 | -12.0% | C |
| 41 | Jackson, MS | 154K | 193.5 | 1,636 | -11.0% | B |
| 42 | Peoria, IL | 113K | 193.5 | 1,636 | -11.0% | B |
| 43 | Hartford, CT | 121K | 193.5 | 1,984 | -11.0% | B |
| 44 | League City, TX | 115K | 193.5 | 1,984 | -11.0% | B |
| 45 | Scottsdale, AZ | 241K | 213.9 | 2,193 | -11.0% | B |
| 46 | West Palm Beach, FL | 117K | 323.1 | 1,375 | -11.0% | B |
| 47 | Nashville, TN | 689K | 391.2 | 2,086 | -11.0% | B |
| 48 | Charlotte, NC | 875K | 548.1 | 2,191 | -11.0% | C |
| 49 | Providence, RI | 191K | 582.4 | 1,897 | -11.0% | C |
| 50 | Evansville, IN | 117K | 582.4 | 2,246 | -11.0% | C |
| 51 | Nampa, ID | 100K | 198.7 | 1,306 | -10.0% | B |
| 52 | Green Bay, WI | 107K | 198.7 | 1,654 | -10.0% | B |
| 53 | Milwaukee, WI | 577K | 240.6 | 1,580 | -10.0% | B |
| 54 | El Paso, TX | 679K | 397.5 | 2,107 | -10.0% | B |
| 55 | Cincinnati, OH | 309K | 362.9 | 2,309 | -10.0% | B |
| 56 | Akron, OH | 190K | 457.9 | 1,828 | -10.0% | B |
| 57 | Garden Grove, CA | 173K | 587.5 | 1,219 | -10.0% | B |
| 58 | San Antonio, TX | 1.5M | 397.5 | 2,529 | -10.0% | C |
| 59 | Norman, OK | 128K | 587.5 | 1,915 | -10.0% | C |
| 60 | Stockton, CA | 321K | 225.4 | 1,462 | -9.0% | B |
| 61 | Fayetteville, NC | 209K | 225.4 | 1,462 | -9.0% | B |
| 62 | Lancaster, CA | 174K | 203.9 | 1,671 | -9.0% | B |
| 63 | Sterling Heights, MI | 134K | 203.9 | 2,019 | -9.0% | B |
| 64 | Miami, FL | 442K | 225.4 | 2,232 | -9.0% | B |
| 65 | Henderson, NV | 320K | 368.6 | 1,558 | -9.0% | B |
| 66 | Topeka, KS | 127K | 333.5 | 1,758 | -9.0% | B |
| 67 | Knoxville, TN | 191K | 333.5 | 2,106 | -9.0% | B |
| 68 | Arvada, CO | 124K | 463.1 | 1,497 | -9.0% | B |
| 69 | Boulder, CO | 106K | 463.1 | 1,497 | -9.0% | B |
| 70 | Murfreesboro, TN | 153K | 463.1 | 1,845 | -9.0% | B |
| 71 | Miramar, FL | 135K | 463.1 | 2,193 | -9.0% | C |
| 72 | Kansas City, MO | 508K | 560.6 | 2,655 | -9.0% | C |
| 73 | Burlington, VT | 45K | 187.1 | 1,199 | -8.0% | B |
| 74 | Tempe, AZ | 181K | 209.1 | 1,340 | -8.0% | B |
| 75 | Coral Springs, FL | 134K | 209.1 | 1,340 | -8.0% | B |
| 76 | Port St. Lucie, FL | 205K | 231.1 | 1,481 | -8.0% | B |
| 77 | College Station, TX | 121K | 209.1 | 1,689 | -8.0% | B |
| 78 | Killeen, TX | 153K | 209.1 | 2,037 | -8.0% | B |
| 79 | San Jose, CA | 1.0M | 253.1 | 2,044 | -8.0% | B |
| 80 | Tulsa, OK | 413K | 374.4 | 1,578 | -8.0% | B |
| 81 | Escondido, CA | 151K | 468.3 | 1,514 | -8.0% | B |
| 82 | Elk Grove, CA | 176K | 468.3 | 1,863 | -8.0% | C |
| 83 | Springfield, MO | 169K | 597.9 | 1,253 | -8.0% | C |
| 84 | Oceanside, CA | 176K | 597.9 | 1,601 | -8.0% | C |
| 85 | Amarillo, TX | 200K | 660.8 | 1,385 | -8.0% | C |
| 86 | Fargo, ND | 126K | 214.3 | 2,054 | -7.0% | B |
| 87 | Riverside, CA | 315K | 236.8 | 2,270 | -7.0% | B |
| 88 | Irvine, CA | 308K | 236.8 | 2,270 | -7.0% | B |
| 89 | Lakeland, FL | 113K | 343.9 | 2,141 | -7.0% | B |
| 90 | Tyler, TX | 106K | 603.1 | 1,271 | -7.0% | C |
| 91 | Gainesville, FL | 141K | 473.5 | 2,228 | -7.0% | C |
| 92 | Tampa, FL | 400K | 523.3 | 2,078 | -7.0% | C |
| 93 | Ann Arbor, MI | 124K | 603.1 | 1,619 | -7.0% | C |
| 94 | Lakewood, NJ | 135K | 603.1 | 1,619 | -7.0% | C |
| 95 | Indianapolis, IN | 888K | 730.1 | 1,538 | -7.0% | C |
| 96 | Springfield, IL | 114K | 219.5 | 1,375 | -6.0% | B |
| 97 | Minneapolis, MN | 430K | 242.6 | 1,520 | -6.0% | B |
| 98 | Worcester, MA | 207K | 242.6 | 1,520 | -6.0% | B |
| 99 | Savannah, GA | 148K | 219.5 | 1,723 | -6.0% | B |
| 100 | Surprise, AZ | 142K | 219.5 | 1,723 | -6.0% | B |
5-year change reflects total per-capita crime rate from 2019 to 2023. Negative values indicate rates fell. All rates per 100,000 residents. Source: FBI UCR via FBI Crime Data Explorer.
How These Trends Are Calculated
For each city we compute total Part I crime per 100,000 residents for the most recent reported year and for five years prior, then express the difference as a percentage change. The 5-year trend feeds 30% of the composite Safety Context Score (per-capita violent rate 40%, per-capita property rate 30%, 5-year trend 30%). Per-offense category trends are visible on each city profile. Read the full methodology.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is the trend more important than the snapshot?
A single year of crime data reflects a snapshot — what happened in one calendar year. A 5-year trend captures whether the city is on a persistent trajectory. A city with above-average crime but a strong downward trend is on a different path than a city with low crime trending up. The Safety Context Score weights the 5-year trend at 30% precisely because direction matters as much as level. Across the top 50 cities here, the average decline is -13.2% over five years.
Are these cities actually safer than they were 5 years ago?
Yes — by the per-capita rate that matters. Each city on this list has seen its total per-capita crime rate (per 100,000 residents) decrease materially from 2019 to 2023. 23 of the top 50 were already below the national average and continued improving from there; the other 27 are recovering from elevated baselines. Both patterns matter for residents, but the lived experience of decline differs depending on the starting point.
What typically drives crime declines?
Crime trend research from the Bureau of Justice Statistics and academic criminologists points to a recurring set of factors that contribute to broad declines: investment in community policing, hot-spot policing programs, focused-deterrence interventions on specific high-risk individuals, improved street lighting and built-environment changes, expansion of mental-health and substance-use services, and economic stabilization in formerly distressed neighborhoods. No single intervention explains national declines, and the combination differs by city.
Can the trend reverse next year?
Yes — trends can reverse, especially after major shocks. The 2020 pandemic and its aftermath produced sharp shifts in homicide and property-crime rates that took several years to resolve. We re-compute trends every time the FBI UCR program publishes new annual data, typically once per year. The current data covers through 2023; the next refresh will incorporate the following year. Cities ranked here are showing genuine 5-year declines as of the most recent reporting cycle.
Where does the underlying data come from?
All rates come from the FBI Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program, accessed via the FBI Crime Data Explorer (CDE). Annual reported counts for each Part I offense are divided by U.S. Census population estimates to compute per-capita rates. The Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) publishes complementary victimization data and methodological notes; we cite both. All sources are U.S. government public domain.
Sources: FBI Uniform Crime Reporting program via FBI Crime Data Explorer (2023); Bureau of Justice Statistics ( bjs.ojp.gov). Public domain.
Last updated 2026-04-06 · 100 cities ranked. We never publish raw crime counts, never imply causation between demographics and crime.