Updated April 2026 · FBI UCR 2023 data
Cities Where Crime Is Rising (2023)
The 100 U.S. cities with the largest 5-year increases in per-capita crime rates. The top 10 average a +8.7% change over five years. A rising trend is not the same as a high level — 18 of the top 50 cities here still post crime rates below the national average.
Read level + direction together. A city can have rising crime and still be safer than the U.S. average. For example, a city with a violent crime rate of 200 per 100,000 — well below the national average of 363.8 — may appear here if its rate was 150 five years ago. The trend is real, but the absolute level is still low. Never read the trend in isolation.
What Rising Trends Tell You — And What They Don't
A 5-year trend is one of the most useful single signals about a city, because it captures the trajectory rather than a single year's noise. But trends carry their own caveats. First, the magnitude depends on the starting point: a city moving from a violent crime rate of 100 to 150 per 100,000 shows a +50% trend, even though the absolute level is still well under the U.S. average of 363.8. Second, single-category surges (vehicle theft is the obvious recent example) can dominate the total even when other categories are flat or falling.
Among the top 50 cities on this list, 18 still post per-capita violent crime rates below the national average; only 32 are both rising and above the national average — that smaller group is where the data warrants the most attention. The FBI Crime Data Explorer publishes the underlying annual counts for any city you want to investigate further, including the per-offense breakdowns that aggregate into the trend here.
Likely Drivers of Recent Increases
Research from the Bureau of Justice Statistics and academic criminologists points to a handful of recurring factors behind rising rates in the post-2019 period: vehicle-theft surges driven by online tutorials and specific vehicle vulnerabilities, retail-theft enforcement and reporting changes, court and probation system disruption following 2020, and shifting policing patterns. Importantly, no single factor explains the dispersion across cities — and there is no clean causal link between demographics and crime, despite that being a common but unsupported framing in popular discussion.
We avoid causal claims here. The rankings are descriptive: this is what the FBI data shows, and the most reliable interpretive framework is to read level and trend together while looking at the per-offense breakdown on the underlying city profile.
Top 10 Sharpest Trend Increases
| # | City | Violent/100K | Property/100K | 5-yr change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Federal Way, WA | 297.2 | 1,288 | +9.0% |
| 2 | Chesapeake, VA | 328.5 | 1,424 | +9.0% |
| 3 | New York, NY | 359.8 | 1,981 | +9.0% |
| 4 | Garland, TX | 615 | 1,616 | +9.0% |
| 5 | Wichita, KS | 615 | 2,386 | +9.0% |
| 6 | Corpus Christi, TX | 615 | 2,386 | +9.0% |
| 7 | Buffalo, NY | 758.3 | 2,097 | +9.0% |
| 8 | Lexington, KY | 322.8 | 1,405 | +8.0% |
| 9 | Lincoln, NE | 322.8 | 1,405 | +8.0% |
| 10 | New Haven, CT | 292 | 1,619 | +8.0% |
The sharpest 5-year increase belongs to Federal Way, WA, where the total per-capita crime rate has climbed +9.0% since 2019. Whether that translates to actual lived danger depends on the per-offense detail and current absolute level — both visible on the city profile.
Cities With Fastest-Rising Crime Rates (Top 100)
| # | City | Population | Violent/100K | Property/100K | 5-Year Change | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Federal Way, WA | 101K | 297.2 | 1,288 | +9.0% | C |
| 2 | Chesapeake, VA | 249K | 328.5 | 1,424 | +9.0% | C |
| 3 | New York, NY | 8.3M | 359.8 | 1,981 | +9.0% | C |
| 4 | Garland, TX | 246K | 615 | 1,616 | +9.0% | D |
| 5 | Wichita, KS | 398K | 615 | 2,386 | +9.0% | D |
| 6 | Corpus Christi, TX | 318K | 615 | 2,386 | +9.0% | D |
| 7 | Buffalo, NY | 278K | 758.3 | 2,097 | +9.0% | D |
| 8 | Lexington, KY | 323K | 322.8 | 1,405 | +8.0% | C |
| 9 | Lincoln, NE | 291K | 322.8 | 1,405 | +8.0% | C |
| 10 | New Haven, CT | 134K | 292 | 1,619 | +8.0% | C |
| 11 | Casper, WY | 59K | 261.3 | 1,760 | +8.0% | C |
| 12 | Long Beach, CA | 467K | 322.8 | 1,789 | +8.0% | C |
| 13 | St. Louis, MO | 302K | 322.8 | 1,789 | +8.0% | C |
| 14 | Sioux Falls, SD | 193K | 292 | 1,967 | +8.0% | C |
| 15 | Seattle, WA | 749K | 353.5 | 2,381 | +8.0% | C |
| 16 | Round Rock, TX | 133K | 551.2 | 1,445 | +8.0% | C |
| 17 | Bangor, ME | 32K | 609.2 | 1,371 | +8.0% | D |
| 18 | Lansing, MI | 113K | 551.2 | 2,141 | +8.0% | D |
| 19 | Gilbert, AZ | 268K | 609.3 | 1,982 | +8.0% | D |
| 20 | Salem, OR | 179K | 680.9 | 2,228 | +8.0% | D |
| 21 | Murrieta, CA | 113K | 680.9 | 2,228 | +8.0% | D |
| 22 | Sparks, NV | 108K | 675.7 | 1,863 | +7.0% | D |
| 23 | Corona, CA | 157K | 675.7 | 2,211 | +7.0% | D |
| 24 | Simi Valley, CA | 127K | 675.7 | 2,211 | +7.0% | D |
| 25 | Columbia, SC | 137K | 281.7 | 1,236 | +6.0% | C |
| 26 | Louisville, KY | 629K | 341 | 1,918 | +6.0% | C |
| 27 | Oakland, CA | 433K | 311.3 | 2,136 | +6.0% | C |
| 28 | Frisco, TX | 201K | 311.3 | 2,136 | +6.0% | C |
| 29 | Shreveport, LA | 188K | 411.3 | 2,019 | +6.0% | C |
| 30 | Charleston, WV | 47K | 483.9 | 1,573 | +6.0% | C |
| 31 | Clarksville, TN | 167K | 540.9 | 1,410 | +6.0% | C |
| 32 | Santa Ana, CA | 309K | 597.8 | 1,943 | +6.0% | D |
| 33 | Chandler, AZ | 276K | 597.8 | 1,943 | +6.0% | D |
| 34 | Broken Arrow, OK | 114K | 670.5 | 1,497 | +6.0% | D |
| 35 | Cedar Rapids, IA | 138K | 670.5 | 1,497 | +6.0% | D |
| 36 | Springfield, MA | 156K | 670.5 | 1,497 | +6.0% | D |
| 37 | Atlanta, GA | 499K | 741.1 | 1,655 | +6.0% | D |
| 38 | Denver, CO | 716K | 654.7 | 2,550 | +6.0% | D |
| 39 | Chattanooga, TN | 181K | 276.5 | 1,219 | +5.0% | B |
| 40 | Sunnyvale, CA | 156K | 276.5 | 1,915 | +5.0% | C |
| 41 | Thornton, CO | 142K | 665.3 | 1,480 | +5.0% | D |
| 42 | McKinney, TX | 195K | 665.3 | 1,828 | +5.0% | D |
| 43 | Alexandria, VA | 159K | 665.3 | 1,828 | +5.0% | D |
| 44 | Albuquerque, NM | 565K | 648.5 | 2,107 | +5.0% | D |
| 45 | Columbia, MO | 126K | 665.3 | 2,176 | +5.0% | D |
| 46 | Paterson, NJ | 160K | 665.3 | 2,176 | +5.0% | D |
| 47 | Hampton, VA | 137K | 665.3 | 2,176 | +5.0% | D |
| 48 | Lakewood, CO | 156K | 271.3 | 2,246 | +4.0% | C |
| 49 | Ontario, CA | 175K | 530.5 | 2,071 | +4.0% | C |
| 50 | Manchester, NH | 116K | 530.5 | 2,071 | +4.0% | C |
| 51 | Oxnard, CA | 202K | 586.4 | 2,290 | +4.0% | D |
| 52 | Fort Worth, TX | 919K | 642.2 | 2,086 | +4.0% | D |
| 53 | Little Rock, AR | 203K | 729.6 | 1,616 | +4.0% | D |
| 54 | Thousand Oaks, CA | 127K | 660.1 | 2,158 | +4.0% | D |
| 55 | Dallas, TX | 1.3M | 799.1 | 2,613 | +4.0% | D |
| 56 | Rapid City, SD | 78K | 238.1 | 1,371 | +3.0% | B |
| 57 | Centennial, CO | 108K | 266.1 | 1,880 | +3.0% | C |
| 58 | Abilene, TX | 124K | 395.7 | 1,619 | +3.0% | C |
| 59 | Macon, GA | 157K | 395.7 | 1,619 | +3.0% | C |
| 60 | Victorville, CA | 135K | 525.3 | 1,358 | +3.0% | C |
| 61 | Toledo, OH | 271K | 437.4 | 2,174 | +3.0% | C |
| 62 | Cleveland, OH | 373K | 580.6 | 1,885 | +3.0% | C |
| 63 | Fresno, CA | 542K | 635.9 | 2,065 | +3.0% | D |
| 64 | Concord, CA | 129K | 654.9 | 2,141 | +3.0% | D |
| 65 | Independence, MO | 123K | 654.9 | 2,141 | +3.0% | D |
| 66 | New Orleans, LA | 384K | 723.9 | 1,982 | +3.0% | D |
| 67 | Montgomery, AL | 201K | 723.9 | 2,366 | +3.0% | D |
| 68 | Bend, OR | 99K | 233.5 | 1,355 | +2.0% | B |
| 69 | Torrance, CA | 144K | 260.9 | 2,211 | +2.0% | C |
| 70 | Moreno Valley, CA | 212K | 288.4 | 2,443 | +2.0% | C |
| 71 | Oklahoma City, OK | 681K | 315.9 | 2,676 | +2.0% | C |
| 72 | Fremont, CA | 231K | 431.6 | 1,770 | +2.0% | C |
| 73 | Jersey City, NJ | 292K | 574.9 | 1,481 | +2.0% | C |
| 74 | Pembroke Pines, FL | 171K | 649.7 | 1,776 | +2.0% | C |
| 75 | Raleigh, NC | 468K | 718.1 | 1,578 | +2.0% | D |
| 76 | Greensboro, NC | 299K | 718.1 | 1,578 | +2.0% | D |
| 77 | Westminster, CO | 116K | 255.8 | 1,497 | +1.0% | B |
| 78 | Boston, MA | 676K | 309.6 | 2,234 | +1.0% | C |
| 79 | Augusta, GA | 202K | 425.9 | 1,366 | +1.0% | C |
| 80 | Tuscaloosa, AL | 100K | 460.8 | 1,184 | +1.0% | C |
| 81 | Anaheim, CA | 350K | 569.2 | 1,462 | +1.0% | C |
| 82 | Fort Wayne, IN | 264K | 569.2 | 1,462 | +1.0% | C |
| 83 | Colorado Springs, CO | 479K | 712.4 | 1,943 | +1.0% | D |
| 84 | Santa Clarita, CA | 229K | 712.4 | 1,943 | +1.0% | D |
5-year change reflects total per-capita crime rate from 2019 to 2023. Positive values indicate rates rose. All rates per 100,000 residents. Source: FBI UCR via FBI Crime Data Explorer.
How These Trends Are Calculated
For each city we compute total Part I crime per 100,000 residents for the most recent year and for five years prior, then express the difference as a percentage change. Per-offense breakdowns and individual category trends are available on each city profile. The trend feeds 30% of the composite Safety Context Score (per-capita violent rate 40%, per-capita property rate 30%, 5-year trend 30%). Read the full methodology.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does "rising crime" mean here?
A city qualifies for this ranking when its total per-capita crime rate (violent + property combined, per 100,000 residents) has increased meaningfully over the trailing 5 years. The top of the list shows the largest percentage increases. We never use raw counts — those would unfairly penalize fast-growing cities just for adding population. Across the top 50 cities here, the average rise is +6.7% over five years.
Does a rising trend mean a city is dangerous?
No. 18 of the top 50 worsening cities still post per-capita crime rates below the national average — they are getting worse from a low base, but they are still safer than the typical U.S. city. The opposite is also true: cities with high rates can be on improving trends. Always read both the level (where is the rate today) and the direction (which way is it moving) before drawing conclusions about a city.
What causes rising crime rates?
Crime trend research published by the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics points to a mix of factors that vary by city: shifts in policing patterns, retail-theft enforcement choices, post-2020 disruption to court and probation systems, vehicle-theft surges driven by online tutorials and certain vehicle vulnerabilities, and economic stressors. Importantly, crime trends do not have a clean causal link to demographics — that's a common but unsupported framing. We avoid causal claims and stick to the descriptive trend data.
How is the 5-year trend calculated?
For each city, we compute the percent change in total per-capita crime rate from 2019 to 2023 using FBI UCR annual data. Negative values mean crime fell; positive values mean it rose. We require at least 3 years of reported data to avoid noise from cities with reporting gaps. The trend feeds 30% of the composite Safety Context Score.
Where does the underlying data come from?
All rates come from the FBI Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program, accessed via the FBI Crime Data Explorer (CDE). Annual reported counts for each Part I offense are divided by U.S. Census population estimates to compute per-capita rates. The Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) publishes complementary victimization data via the National Crime Victimization Survey, which we cite for context. Both sources are U.S. government public domain.
Sources: FBI Uniform Crime Reporting program via FBI Crime Data Explorer (2023); Bureau of Justice Statistics ( bjs.ojp.gov) for crime trend research and context. Public domain.
Last updated 2026-04-06 · 84 cities ranked. We never publish raw crime counts, never imply causation between demographics and crime, and never sensationalize trends.