Mid-Size Cities, Crime Rates & Safety (2023)

Per-capita rates already adjust for population, but reporting completeness, offense mix, and demographic structure all vary systematically by population bracket. Comparing a town to a major metro often confuses size effects with safety effects; comparing within a bracket isolates the question of which cities at similar scale are doing well or poorly. The FBI itself segments UCR data by population strata for the same reason.

Across 201 mid-size cities in the FBI cohort, the average per-capita violent crime rate is 444.3/100K and the average property crime rate is 1,780/100K. The U.S. national rate is 363.8/100K violent and 1,832/100K property. Cohort averages can differ from the U.S. average because the population bracket is not a representative sample of the country.

Of the 201 mid-size cities tracked, 102 (51%) show a clearly improving 5-year trend (more than 3% drop in total crime rate), 45 show a worsening trend (more than 3% rise), and the remainder are roughly stable. Trend direction contributes 30% to each city's Safety Context Score.

The 0-100 composite weighs three FBI UCR inputs: per-capita violent crime versus the U.S. average (40%), per-capita property crime versus the U.S. average (30%), and the direction of the 5-year trend (30%). All inputs are population-adjusted, so the score is directly comparable across cohort sizes. A city in this cohort can outscore a much larger or much smaller city if its rates are lower or its trend is improving faster.

Every figure traces to the FBI Uniform Crime Reporting program, accessed through the FBI Crime Data Explorer at cde.ucr.cjis.gov. Population denominators come from the U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program. The Bureau of Justice Statistics (bjs.ojp.gov) publishes complementary information on unreported crime. The data is public domain.