Is Modesto, CA Safe?
Modesto, CA has a Safety Score of 82/100 (grade A). Violent crime is 47% below the national average. Crime has been trending downward over the past 5 years.
Safety Context Score: 82/100 (Grade A)
CrimeContext scores Modesto on a 0-100 scale that weights per-capita violent crime against the national average (40%), per-capita property crime (30%), and the 5-year direction of total crime (30%). A grade of A means Modesto sits better than the typical U.S. city once population is taken into account. Crime has been trending downward over the past 5 years.
We never display raw crime counts. A large city will always log more total incidents than a small town; the only fair comparison is the rate per 100,000 residents, which is what every number on this page uses.
Modesto Crime Rates per 100,000 vs National Average
| Crime Type | Modesto | National Avg | vs National |
|---|---|---|---|
| Violent Crime | 191.0 | 363.8 | -47% |
| Property Crime | 1346.7 | 1832.3 | -27% |
| Murder | 1.9 | 5.7 | -67% |
| Robbery | 28.7 | 73.0 | -61% |
| Aggravated Assault | 105.1 | 246.4 | -57% |
| Burglary | 161.6 | 269.8 | -40% |
| Larceny-Theft | 875.4 | 1401.9 | -38% |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 107.7 | 318.3 | -66% |
| 5-Year Trend | -15.0% | ||
| Population | 218,464 | ||
All values are incidents per 100,000 residents (FBI UCR/NIBRS). Per-capita rates only — never raw counts.
Frequently Asked Questions
Modesto, CA has a Safety Score of 82/100 (grade A). Violent crime is 47% below the national average. Crime has been trending downward over the past 5 years.
Modesto, CA has a violent crime rate of 191.0 per 100,000 residents (47% below the U.S. average of 363.8) and a property crime rate of 1346.7 per 100,000 (27% below the U.S. average of 1832.3). All figures are per-capita rates, never raw counts.
Modesto has a murder rate of 1.9 per 100,000 residents, compared with the national average of 5.7. Like every figure here, this is a per-capita rate — raw homicide counts without population context can badly mislead.
Crime has been trending downward over the past 5 years. Over the past 5 years, the total crime rate in Modesto has changed by -15.0%.
Violent crime in Modesto is 47% below the U.S. average and property crime is 27% below average. Modesto's overall Safety Context Score is 82/100 (grade A).
More about Modesto
Modesto, CA has a Safety Score of 82/100 (grade A). Violent crime is 47% below the national average. Crime has been trending downward over the past 5 years.
The data source behind this answer is the FBI UCR/NIBRS dataset. Every figure on the page traces back to that source; the methodology page describes the inputs and the refresh cadence in full detail.
A practical caveat: the headline answer above reflects the most recent the FBI UCR/NIBRS dataset vintage; underlying data is often revised for months after first publication, and the right reference for any specific decision is whichever vintage is current at the time of the decision. The as-of date is stamped on every page.
Source: FBI Crime Data Explorer, 2026.