Updated April 2026 · FBI UCR 2023 data
Tucson, AZ vs Phoenix, AZ
Tucson, AZ reports 422.6 violent crimes per 100,000 residents versus Phoenix, AZ's 617.1/100K — a lower per-capita rate for Tucson. On the composite Safety Context Score, Tucson grades B (65/100) and Phoenix grades C (52/100). All figures are FBI Uniform Crime Reporting data for 2023.
How These Two Cities Compare
Tucson sits in the "close to the national rate" tier on violent crime; Phoenix sits in the "modestly above the national rate" tier. That single difference is usually the largest factor in any safety comparison. Per-capita violent crime differs by about 0.5x — 194.5 more incidents per 100,000 residents in the higher-rate city. On the composite Safety Context Score, Tucson (B, 65/100) outranks Phoenix (C, 52/100). The score weights violent crime at 40%, property crime at 30%, and the 5-year trend direction at 30%, so a city can rank higher even with a moderately higher current rate if its trend is improving faster.
Tucson is a large city (543K residents) while Phoenix is a major metro (1.7M). Per-capita rates are still directly comparable — that's the point of expressing crime in incidents per 100,000 — but readers should expect the larger city to show somewhat broader offense diversity simply because more people generate more variation.
Tucson (-6.0%, improving) and Phoenix (0.0%, stable) are on different but not opposite tracks. Trend direction contributes 30% to the Safety Context Score, so a city with a slightly higher current rate but a clearly improving trend can still grade higher.
Fair comparison. Both cities are read in per-capita rates per 100,000 residents — the FBI Uniform Crime Reporting program's standard unit — so population differences do not distort the figures. The U.S. national rate of 363.8/100K violent crime and 1,832/100K property crime is shown alongside both cities for additional context.
Side-by-Side Comparison
| Metric | TucsonB | PhoenixC |
|---|---|---|
| Population | 543K | 1.7M |
| Safety Score | 65/100 (B) | 52/100 (C) |
| Violent Crime Rate | 422.6 /100K | 617.1 /100K |
| Property Crime Rate | 1,770 /100K | 2,002 /100K |
| Murder Rate | 12.7 /100K | 12.3 /100K |
| Robbery Rate | 80.3 /100K | 123.4 /100K |
| Assault Rate | 291.6 /100K | 401.1 /100K |
| Burglary Rate | 283.2 /100K | 240.2 /100K |
| 5-Year Trend | -6.0% | 0.0% |
| National Violent Avg | 363.8 /100K | 363.8 /100K |
Lower crime rates highlighted in green. All rates per 100,000 residents.
Tier and Trend Read
Violent-crime tier: close to the national rate. 5-year trend: Improving (-6.0%). Score: B (65/100).
Violent-crime tier: modestly above the national rate. 5-year trend: Stable (0.0%). Score: C (52/100).
Tucson, 5-Year Trend
Per-capita rates per 100,000 residents
Phoenix, 5-Year Trend
Per-capita rates per 100,000 residents
How the Safety Context Score Is Calculated
The Safety Context Score combines three FBI UCR signals: per-capita violent crime versus the U.S. average (40% weight), per-capita property crime versus the U.S. average (30%), and the direction of the 5-year trend in total crime (30%). Violent and property components use a log-scaled curve so the score does not flatten out at very high ratios; the trend component runs from -20% (max boost) to +20% (max penalty). A city can grade higher than another with a slightly lower current rate if its trend is improving faster — direction is weighted because it matters as much as level for long-run safety reads. Read the full methodology.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Tucson or Phoenix safer?
Tucson grades higher on the Safety Context Score (B 65/100 vs C 52/100). The score combines per-capita violent crime (40%), per-capita property crime (30%), and 5-year trend direction (30%), so a city can grade higher even with a moderately higher current rate if its trend is improving faster.
What is the per-capita violent crime difference?
Tucson has a 32% lower per-capita violent crime rate than Phoenix (422.6/100K versus 617.1/100K). The U.S. national rate is 363.8/100K — useful as a third reference point.
What about property crime?
Tucson has a 12% lower per-capita property crime rate (1,770/100K vs 2,002/100K). The U.S. average is 1,832/100K. Property crime — burglary, larceny-theft, and motor vehicle theft — is far more common nationally than violent crime in every city, including these two.
Which city has a better 5-year trend?
Tucson has the more favorable 5-year trend (-6.0% vs 0.0%). Negative numbers mean per-capita crime fell. Trend direction contributes 30% to the Safety Context Score because direction matters as much as level for long-term safety reads.
Where does this data come from?
Both cities' figures are sourced from the FBI Uniform Crime Reporting program (UCR), accessed through the FBI Crime Data Explorer at cde.ucr.cjis.gov. Population denominators come from U.S. Census Bureau estimates. The data is public domain and is the same source used by federal agencies, journalists, and academic researchers. Reporting and victimization context is available from the Bureau of Justice Statistics at bjs.ojp.gov.
Source: Federal Bureau of Investigation, Uniform Crime Reporting Program (2023), accessed via the FBI Crime Data Explorer. Population denominators from the U.S. Census Bureau. Reporting context from the Bureau of Justice Statistics. Public domain.
Last refreshed 2026-04-06 · All rates per 100,000 residents.
The side-by-side above pulls the the FBI UCR/NIBRS dataset data for both entity A and entity B. What follows is the interpretation — which specific axes carry the most weight for entity A versus entity B, and which differences are large enough to influence a real decision.
Practical use of the comparison: read the data above, then drill into the individual entity A and entity B detail pages for the underlying breakdown. A pairwise comparison answers the relative question; the per-entity pages answer the absolute question.