Updated April 2026 · FBI UCR 2023 data
Modesto, CA vs Pasadena, CA
Modesto, CA reports 191 violent crimes per 100,000 residents versus Pasadena, CA's 172.8/100K — a higher per-capita rate for Modesto. On the composite Safety Context Score, Modesto grades A (82/100) and Pasadena grades A (82/100). All figures are FBI Uniform Crime Reporting data for 2023.
How These Two Cities Compare
Both Modesto and Pasadena fall in the "below the national rate" tier on violent crime, meaning their headline rates are within roughly the same band relative to the FBI national average. Per-capita violent crime is roughly comparable — 191/100K versus 172.8/100K, a gap small enough that demographic or methodological differences in reporting could narrow or widen it. On the composite Safety Context Score, Pasadena (A, 82/100) outranks Modesto (A, 82/100). The score weights violent crime at 40%, property crime at 30%, and the 5-year trend direction at 30%, so a city can rank higher even with a moderately higher current rate if its trend is improving faster.
Both cities are mid-size citys by FBI cohort size (218K vs 139K residents), so per-capita comparisons are reasonably apples-to-apples. mid-size citys tend to share similar reporting completeness in UCR data and similar offense mixes, which makes head-to-head readings more reliable.
Both cities sit in the same trend tier — improving significantly — over the past five years (-15.0% for Modesto, -15.0% for Pasadena). When two cities share a direction, the comparison comes down to the current snapshot and the offense mix.
Fair comparison. Both cities are read in per-capita rates per 100,000 residents — the FBI Uniform Crime Reporting program's standard unit — so population differences do not distort the figures. The U.S. national rate of 363.8/100K violent crime and 1,832/100K property crime is shown alongside both cities for additional context.
Side-by-Side Comparison
| Metric | ModestoA | PasadenaA |
|---|---|---|
| Population | 218K | 139K |
| Safety Score | 82/100 (A) | 82/100 (A) |
| Violent Crime Rate | 191 /100K | 172.8 /100K |
| Property Crime Rate | 1,347 /100K | 1,567 /100K |
| Murder Rate | 1.9 /100K | 5.2 /100K |
| Robbery Rate | 28.7 /100K | 25.9 /100K |
| Assault Rate | 105.1 /100K | 103.7 /100K |
| Burglary Rate | 161.6 /100K | 188 /100K |
| 5-Year Trend | -15.0% | -15.0% |
| National Violent Avg | 363.8 /100K | 363.8 /100K |
Lower crime rates highlighted in green. All rates per 100,000 residents.
Tier and Trend Read
Violent-crime tier: below the national rate. 5-year trend: Improving significantly (-15.0%). Score: A (82/100).
Violent-crime tier: below the national rate. 5-year trend: Improving significantly (-15.0%). Score: A (82/100).
Modesto, 5-Year Trend
Per-capita rates per 100,000 residents
Pasadena, 5-Year Trend
Per-capita rates per 100,000 residents
How the Safety Context Score Is Calculated
The Safety Context Score combines three FBI UCR signals: per-capita violent crime versus the U.S. average (40% weight), per-capita property crime versus the U.S. average (30%), and the direction of the 5-year trend in total crime (30%). Violent and property components use a log-scaled curve so the score does not flatten out at very high ratios; the trend component runs from -20% (max boost) to +20% (max penalty). A city can grade higher than another with a slightly lower current rate if its trend is improving faster — direction is weighted because it matters as much as level for long-run safety reads. Read the full methodology.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Modesto or Pasadena safer?
Both cities currently grade identically on the Safety Context Score (A, 82/100). Per-capita violent crime is 191/100K for Modesto versus 172.8/100K for Pasadena. Use the offense breakdown and 5-year trend to break the tie.
What is the per-capita violent crime difference?
Pasadena has a 10% lower per-capita violent crime rate than Modesto (172.8/100K versus 191/100K). The U.S. national rate is 363.8/100K — useful as a third reference point.
What about property crime?
Modesto has a 14% lower per-capita property crime rate (1,347/100K vs 1,567/100K). The U.S. average is 1,832/100K. Property crime — burglary, larceny-theft, and motor vehicle theft — is far more common nationally than violent crime in every city, including these two.
Which city has a better 5-year trend?
Both cities show essentially identical 5-year trends (-15.0%). When trends match, the comparison comes down to the current snapshot and offense mix.
Where does this data come from?
Both cities' figures are sourced from the FBI Uniform Crime Reporting program (UCR), accessed through the FBI Crime Data Explorer at cde.ucr.cjis.gov. Population denominators come from U.S. Census Bureau estimates. The data is public domain and is the same source used by federal agencies, journalists, and academic researchers. Reporting and victimization context is available from the Bureau of Justice Statistics at bjs.ojp.gov.
Source: Federal Bureau of Investigation, Uniform Crime Reporting Program (2023), accessed via the FBI Crime Data Explorer. Population denominators from the U.S. Census Bureau. Reporting context from the Bureau of Justice Statistics. Public domain.
Last refreshed 2026-04-06 · All rates per 100,000 residents.
The side-by-side above pulls the the FBI UCR/NIBRS dataset data for both entity A and entity B. What follows is the interpretation — which specific axes carry the most weight for entity A versus entity B, and which differences are large enough to influence a real decision.
Practical use of the comparison: read the data above, then drill into the individual entity A and entity B detail pages for the underlying breakdown. A pairwise comparison answers the relative question; the per-entity pages answer the absolute question.