Published April 5, 2026 · Updated annually
Is Crime Actually Going Up? What the Data Shows
No. Overall crime in America is not going up. Per-capita violent crime rates have declined significantly from their peak in the early 1990s and remain well below historical highs. Property crime has fallen even more dramatically. However, the national trend masks important local variation — some cities have seen increases while others continue to improve.
The National Picture
The national violent crime rate peaked at approximately 758 per 100,000 residents in 1991. The current rate is approximately 364 per 100,000 — a decline of over 50%. Property crime has fallen even more, from 5,140 per 100,000 in 1991 to approximately 1832 today.
There was a notable spike in violent crime during 2020-2021, driven primarily by a surge in homicides. However, preliminary FBI data for subsequent years shows that spike reversing, with violent crime rates returning to their long-term downward trajectory.
Why It Feels Like Crime Is Up
Public perception often diverges from data. Several factors explain why many Americans believe crime is worsening:
- Media coverage — Crime reporting has increased even as crime decreases. A Pew Research study found that Americans consistently overestimate crime rates, with 78% believing crime increased nationally even in years when it declined.
- Social media amplification — Viral crime videos create a perception of ubiquitous danger. A single incident seen by millions can shift public opinion more than years of declining statistics.
- Local variation — While national trends are positive, some cities experienced real increases that affected residents directly. City-level data matters more than national averages for people making decisions about where to live.
- Pandemic disruption — The 2020-2021 homicide spike was real and alarming, even though it has largely reversed. That disruption anchored public perception.
Cities Where Crime Is Declining
- Pueblo, CO — Safety Score: 83, Grade: A
- Modesto, CA — Safety Score: 82, Grade: A
- Pasadena, CA — Safety Score: 82, Grade: A
- Wilmington, NC — Safety Score: 81, Grade: A
- Birmingham, AL — Safety Score: 80, Grade: A
Cities Where Crime Has Increased
- Dallas, TX — Safety Score: 39, Grade: D
- Buffalo, NY — Safety Score: 39, Grade: D
- Salem, OR — Safety Score: 42, Grade: D
- Murrieta, CA — Safety Score: 42, Grade: D
- Denver, CO — Safety Score: 43, Grade: D
How to Read Crime Data Responsibly
When evaluating crime in any city, always use per-capita rates (per 100,000 residents), not raw counts. Compare to the national average for context. Look at 5-year trends, not single-year snapshots. And remember that crime categories (violent, property, specific offenses) can move independently — a city can have declining violent crime but rising property crime simultaneously.
Look up any city on CrimeContext for per-capita rates, national comparisons, and trend data.
Frequently Asked Questions
No. National per-capita violent crime rates continue their long-term decline from the 1991 peak. The current rate of approximately 364 per 100,000 is less than half the 1991 peak of 758. However, some individual cities have seen increases.
Nationally, no major crime category is trending upward in per-capita rates. Some cities have seen increases in specific categories like auto theft or retail theft, but these are local trends, not national ones. Motor vehicle theft saw a notable increase in 2020-2022 but has since plateaued.
Gallup polling consistently shows 60-80% of Americans believe crime is increasing nationally, even in years when FBI data shows declines. This perception gap is driven by media coverage, social media virality, and the psychological availability bias — dramatic events are more memorable than gradual statistical improvements.
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