Updated April 2026 · FBI UCR 2023

Stable Crime Rates

Cities where total crime rates have stayed within 3% over the past 5 years

69 cities · FBI UCR 2023 with 5-year lookback

69 U.S. cities are classified as "stable crime rates" based on a 5-year change in total per-capita crime from FBI Uniform Crime Reporting data. The cohort averages a -0.1% change over the window with 490.5/100K average violent crime — above the U.S. national rate of 363.8/100K.

Cities Getting Safer Cities With Rising Crime Stable Crime Rates

What This Trend Cohort Means

Cities classified as "stable" have seen total per-capita crime move within ±3% over the past five years — inside the ordinary year-to-year noise band for FBI UCR data. The 69 stable cities tracked here average -0.1% over the window. Stability is not the same as safety: a stable trend at a high rate is very different from a stable trend at a low rate, and the Safety Context Score weights both the snapshot and the direction. The current rate is the most reliable signal for cities in this cohort because there's no clear multi-year direction to extrapolate.

For stable cities, the current snapshot is the most reliable read. Without a clear multi-year direction, projection forward is harder, so use the city's current rate against the FBI national average as the primary input. The 5-year trend still contributes 30% to the Safety Context Score, but the contribution is muted for cities in this cohort.

For broader context, the FBI Crime Data Explorer publishes the same underlying year-by-year data and lets you see how each city has moved across the full UCR window. The Bureau of Justice Statistics publishes the National Crime Victimization Survey, which captures the share of crime that goes unreported to police — useful supplementary context when reading reported-crime trends.

Cohort Cities (Sorted by Trend Magnitude)

#	City	Population	5-Year Trend	Violent/100K	Property/100K	Score
1	Brownsville, TX	187K	-3.0%	235	1,776	B
2	Memphis, TN	633K	-3.0%	284.5	2,149	B
3	Overland Park, KS	197K	-3.0%	364.6	1,863	C
4	Newark, NJ	312K	-3.0%	403	2,059	C
5	West Jordan, UT	117K	-3.0%	494.2	1,601	C
6	Madison, WI	270K	-3.0%	546.2	1,385	C
7	Los Angeles, CA	4.0M	-3.0%	441.4	2,255	C
8	Durham, NC	284K	-3.0%	403	2,443	C
9	Midland, TX	138K	-3.0%	494.2	1,950	C
10	North Las Vegas, NV	263K	-3.0%	546.2	1,770	C
11	Sacramento, CA	525K	-3.0%	598.3	1,939	C
12	Joliet, IL	150K	-3.0%	623.8	2,037	C
13	Lewisville, TX	112K	-2.0%	240.2	2,141	B
14	Peoria, AZ	191K	-2.0%	369.8	1,532	B
15	Provo, UT	115K	-2.0%	369.8	1,532	B
16	Tacoma, WA	219K	-2.0%	408.7	1,693	C
17	Salt Lake City, UT	200K	-2.0%	369.8	2,228	C
18	Clovis, CA	120K	-2.0%	499.4	1,619	C
19	Bellevue, WA	152K	-2.0%	499.4	1,967	C
20	Roseville, CA	148K	-2.0%	629	1,358	C
21	Cape Coral, FL	194K	-2.0%	629	2,054	C
22	Jacksonville, FL	955K	-2.0%	761.4	2,486	D
23	Mesa, AZ	504K	-2.0%	761.4	2,486	D
24	Edmond, OK	100K	-1.0%	219.6	1,620	B
25	Charleston, SC	150K	-1.0%	245.4	2,158	B
26	Grand Rapids, MI	199K	-1.0%	375	1,549	C
27	Rockford, IL	149K	-1.0%	504.6	1,288	C
28	Norfolk, VA	238K	-1.0%	414.5	2,482	C
29	Pittsburgh, PA	303K	-1.0%	557.7	1,809	C
30	Hayward, CA	163K	-1.0%	634.2	1,375	C
31	Palmdale, CA	169K	-1.0%	634.2	1,723	C
32	Winston-Salem, NC	250K	-1.0%	701	1,905	C
33	Austin, TX	979K	0.0%	303.3	1,791	C
34	Irving, TX	257K	0.0%	420.2	1,347	C
35	Eugene, OR	177K	0.0%	509.8	1,306	C
36	Yonkers, NY	212K	0.0%	563.4	1,443	C
37	Washington, DC	690K	0.0%	460.2	2,318	C
38	Reno, NV	264K	0.0%	563.4	1,828	C
39	Phoenix, AZ	1.7M	0.0%	617.1	2,002	C
40	Fontana, CA	215K	0.0%	706.7	1,924	D
41	Westminster, CO	116K	+1.0%	255.8	1,497	B
42	Boston, MA	676K	+1.0%	309.6	2,234	C
43	Augusta, GA	202K	+1.0%	425.9	1,366	C
44	Tuscaloosa, AL	100K	+1.0%	460.8	1,184	C
45	Anaheim, CA	350K	+1.0%	569.2	1,462	C
46	Fort Wayne, IN	264K	+1.0%	569.2	1,462	C
47	Colorado Springs, CO	479K	+1.0%	712.4	1,943	D
48	Santa Clarita, CA	229K	+1.0%	712.4	1,943	D
49	Bend, OR	99K	+2.0%	233.5	1,355	B
50	Torrance, CA	144K	+2.0%	260.9	2,211	C
51	Moreno Valley, CA	212K	+2.0%	288.4	2,443	C
52	Oklahoma City, OK	681K	+2.0%	315.9	2,676	C
53	Fremont, CA	231K	+2.0%	431.6	1,770	C
54	Jersey City, NJ	292K	+2.0%	574.9	1,481	C
55	Pembroke Pines, FL	171K	+2.0%	649.7	1,776	C
56	Raleigh, NC	468K	+2.0%	718.1	1,578	D
57	Greensboro, NC	299K	+2.0%	718.1	1,578	D
58	Rapid City, SD	78K	+3.0%	238.1	1,371	B
59	Centennial, CO	108K	+3.0%	266.1	1,880	C
60	Abilene, TX	124K	+3.0%	395.7	1,619	C
61	Macon, GA	157K	+3.0%	395.7	1,619	C
62	Victorville, CA	135K	+3.0%	525.3	1,358	C
63	Toledo, OH	271K	+3.0%	437.4	2,174	C
64	Cleveland, OH	373K	+3.0%	580.6	1,885	C
65	Fresno, CA	542K	+3.0%	635.9	2,065	D
66	Concord, CA	129K	+3.0%	654.9	2,141	D
67	Independence, MO	123K	+3.0%	654.9	2,141	D
68	New Orleans, LA	384K	+3.0%	723.9	1,982	D
69	Montgomery, AL	201K	+3.0%	723.9	2,366	D

All rates per 100,000 residents. Source: FBI UCR 2023, accessed via the FBI Crime Data Explorer.

How the 5-Year Trend Is Calculated

For each city, CrimeContext computes the percent change in total per-capita crime rate (violent + property combined) over the most recent five FBI UCR years. The window dampens single-year noise — important during the FBI's ongoing transition from the Summary Reporting System to NIBRS, which can introduce small year-to-year discontinuities at the agency level. Trend direction contributes 30% to the Safety Context Score on every city profile. Read the full methodology.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is "stable crime rates" in CrimeContext data?

A city is classified as "stable" if total per-capita crime has moved within ±3% over the past five years — inside the ordinary year-to-year noise band for FBI UCR data. Stable can mean stably-low or stably-high; the Safety Context Score weights both the level and the direction.

How is the trend calculated?

For each city, we compute the percent change in total per-capita crime rate (violent + property combined) over the most recent five FBI UCR years. Cities are bucketed into Improving (≤ -3%), Stable (between -3% and +3%), and Worsening (≥ +3%). The 5-year window dampens single-year noise that's common in UCR data, especially during the FBI's ongoing transition from the Summary Reporting System to NIBRS.

Does a stable trend mean a city is predictable?

Stability is not the same as safety. A stable trend at a high rate is very different from a stable trend at a low rate. The Safety Context Score combines the snapshot and the direction; for stable cities the snapshot is the more decisive signal because there's no clear direction to extrapolate.

How does this trend feed into the Safety Context Score?

The 5-year trend direction contributes 30% of the Safety Context Score, alongside per-capita violent crime (40%) and per-capita property crime (30%). Cities with negative trends (improving) get a score boost; cities with positive trends (worsening) get a penalty. The trend component is capped between -20% (max boost) and +20% (max penalty) so a single very large move can't dominate the composite.

Where does this data come from?

Every figure traces back to the FBI Uniform Crime Reporting program, accessed through the FBI Crime Data Explorer at cde.ucr.cjis.gov. Population denominators come from the U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program. The Bureau of Justice Statistics (bjs.ojp.gov) publishes complementary information on unreported crime. The data is public domain.

Cities Getting Safer →Rising Crime →Safest Cities →Methodology →

Source: Federal Bureau of Investigation, Uniform Crime Reporting Program (2023), accessed via the FBI Crime Data Explorer. Population denominators from the U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program. Reporting context from the Bureau of Justice Statistics. Public domain.

Last refreshed 2026-04-06 · All rates per 100,000 residents.